Patrick Reed is preparing for another attempt at his first LIV triumph at Royal Greens in Jeddah after nearly winning in Bangkok. Despite the lesser 20/1 odds, we believe there is merit in betting the big champion, as we discuss further below.
LIV Golf returns to its birthplace for the first time since its creation. Following the event in Bangkok last week, this rival tour will make a stop in Saudi Arabia.
Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra, who won at Stonehill Golf Club last week, will try to make it back-to-back triumphs.
The complete LIV Golf Jeddah odds are available below, along with an analysis of favorites and two sleeper choices worth supporting.
Odds for the LIV Golf Invitational Jeddah
|Harold Varner III||+2,200|
|Charles Howell III||+3,000|
Odds provided by OKBET as of October 12, 2022.
Sleeper pick for the LIV Golf Invitational Jeddah
- Patrick Reed | +2,000
- Ian Poulter | +5,000
Predictions made at 12:00 a.m. ET on October 12, 2022.
Notes about the Royal Greens Golf and Country Club course
After nearly a decade of work, this track finally opened in 2017. The course, designed by Dave Sampson, runs in a variety of directions to increase the difficulty of adapting your play to the wind coming in from the Red Sea.
Because of the wind’s unpredictability, this event will most likely be decided by the approach and putting. Approach shots will be critical to prevent two- or three-putts due to the huge undulations of the greens.
This means that strokes gained approach and strokes gained putting will most likely be the most important determinants of success.
Favorites at the LIV Golf Invitational in Jeddah
Dustin Johnson | +400
DJ quickly established himself as the premier golfer on the LIV circuit until Cameron Smith came. He has finished inside the Top 8 in four of the five LIV tournaments he has competed in, making him a must-play in either DFS or betting.
On a circuit that is less prestigious than the PGA Tour, DJ is head and shoulders above the majority of his competitors. This is a man that was OWGR No. 1 for the majority of the 2021 season.
DJ should do well on the Royal Greens course. DJ finished the 2020-21 Tour season ranked 57th in strokes gained on approach and fourth in putting.
Despite having just had his worst performance since joining LIV, Johnson remains the overwhelming favorite to win this tournament.
Cameron Smith | +800
I was mistaken about Cam Smith last week in two ways: that it would be his final race when he wasn’t the favorite and that he would win at Stonehill. Have I learned my lesson?
Absolutely not, since I am confident that he will win this week. Smith, the current OWGR No. 2, is, in my opinion, not just the greatest player on LIV, but also the finest golfer on Tour.
Smith made an early impression, finishing fourth in his debut event in Boston and winning his second event in Chicago. So, what occurred the previous week? His game was never there from the start. Smith was towards the bottom of the list after Day 1 and never recovered.
However, this should not be used as an accusation against him in the future; any golfer may have a terrible week, regardless of who it is. More significantly, given how much more gifted he is in comparison to the rest of the field, it should not result in a $3 decline in his outright win price.
Smith, who is still in his prime, would be the betting favorite in most events regardless of circuit. He was seventh in strokes gained approach and ninth in putting before departing for LIV.
After last week’s dismal performance, he is my best pick on the board to win at Royal Greens, and he should be a solid buy-low option.
Joaquin Niemann | +800
Niemann, as last week, rounds out the betting favorites. Aside from Smith, Niemann was the most unexpected addition to the LIV circuit.
The 23-year-old was tipped to be one of golf’s future big stars, and his brilliance has already showed on LIV.
He has finished inside the Top 20 in all three of his outings on this rival circuit, with two of those finishes being inside the Top 5. Based on his great approach game, we should anticipate more of the same this week.
He was 19th in strokes gained approach before departing the Tour. My only concern for Niemann this week is his erratic putting, but he should still finish in the top half of the leaderboard once again.
Sleepers for the LIV Golf Invitational in Jeddah
Patrick Reed | +2,000
Last week, I accompanied Patrick Reed, and everything went almost precisely as planned, with his dynamite putter pushing him to a second-place finish. I’m not convinced Reed could have played much better after losing by three strokes to Lopez-Chacarra – it was just Lopez-week. Chacarra’s
Despite a $5 price decrease this week following that fantastic performance, we’re still going to pick Reed at 20/1. Reed has been pretty up and down since joining LIV, and it appears that we have caught him on an upswing this week.
While he began his LIV career with two Top-5 results, he has failed to enter the Top 10 in the two subsequent races before last week’s second-place performance. Reed finished the 2020-21 season ranked 57th on Tour in strokes gained approach.
While his ball striking could keep him in contention, it is Reed’s putting that should propel him to the top of the leaderboard once more. Reed finished fourth in strokes gained putting that season.
Reed’s putter has always been his finest weapon, and at a course where putting is vital, he should be a fantastic bet.
Ian Poulter | +5,000
Going a bit lower on the odds board, Ian Poulter at 50/1 is this week’s best value pick. Poulter, a seasoned member of the PGA Tour, built his career around the two factors that should be most important this week.
Poulter always had great golf seasons, and it was always due to strokes gained putting and around the green. He concluded the 2021–22 season rated 37th around the green and 17th in putting despite being older and joining the Tour.
Although I just indicated that approach play will be crucial, you may compensate by scrambling and making good putts. Poulter, an up-and-down performer, may be a cunning play this week, making 50/1 an attractive bet.
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