A second-line striker seldom has a goal-scoring prop available above +350, but that is the case in this case. For tonight’s game against the Capitals, Denis Malgin is available at a staggering +680. Malgin sees the time-on-man advantage as well, therefore the potential value is enormous.
After last night’s heartbreaking loss in Montreal as a strong road favorite, the sky is falling in Toronto. The messy-looking Maple Leafs will now face the Washington Capitals, who also lost their season opener yesterday night, when they return home.
Goals are not always implied by the fact that both sides should start their reserves. But it’s hard to overlook getting a second-line winger to score at +680 in a game with a high total.
Discover the answer in my free NHL selections and prediction for the Capitals vs. Maple Leafs game.
Best odds for Capitals vs Maple Leafs
Picks and Prediction for Capitals vs Maple Leafs
Last night, Toronto’s second line of Denis Malgin, William Nylander, and John Tavares was the best of the four. Malgin got one of the team’s three goals, leading all Toronto skaters with 0.658 xGoals as the new combination finished with a 70% xGoal%. He contributed two shots on goal, was tied for the most offensive-zone shifts at even strength, and compliments both Tavares and Nylander’s performance.
Malgin might be the Michael Bunting of the second line tonight, and with Toronto expected to be less “creative,” Malgin could bury another goal in the paint.
Because it was Malgin’s debut game, the goal market wasn’t widely accessible yesterday night, but some bookies provided closing odds of +225. He is now available for +680 a night after scoring!
This is a pricing play since the +680 odds reflect an implied chance of 12.8%, but the other books at +245 estimate a 30% likelihood.
It’s not often that we can get a second-line winger who also plays on the power play’s second unit at +350 to score. To put that in perspective, OKBET pricing on Malgin is lower than price on two of the Leafs’ fourth-liners.
My best bet | Denis Malgin Over 0.5 goals +680
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Moneyline Analysis for Capitals vs Maple Leafs
When your coach declares that you deserved to lose after the first game of the season, a 4-3 setback to the Canadiens, it is never a good sign. But it is the Toronto Maple Leafs’ way of life.
Sheldon Keefe, the head coach of Toronto, was not pleased with the Leafs’ performance after their sloppy opening against a Montreal squad that started four rookie defenseman. After returning home, the Buds will now have a short turnaround before taking on the Capitals, who lost their season opening 5-2 yesterday night in Washington, DC.
Tom Wilson and Nick Backstrom aren’t in the starting lineup for the Capitals, but Connor Brown and Dylan Strome have done a good job of filling their spots. The Capitals were outplayed early on Sunday, falling behind 3-0 in the second period, and will probably have to rely on Charlie Lindgren, a backup goalkeeper who has appeared in 24 NHL games over the past five seasons.
Ilya Samsonov, the starting goaltender for Toronto, will be a benefit to Washington as well. Samsonov will be motivated and have money on the line against his old team, though, after essentially being let go by the Capitals last season.
Both clubs are on the road after losing their previous games, making it difficult to predict the outcome of the game. The clubs could play defensively in front of their substitutes, especially the Leafs after their coach chastised them for yesterday night’s loss in the dying seconds. With the errors and fragility the Leafs showed last night, this may also be a high-scoring contest.
Although the bounce-back and Samsonov angles are legitimate at this price and may be the causes of the Leafs’ ML swing from -175 to -200, I’m leaning toward the value of the Capitals at +170.
Last night, The Leafs were closed at -240.
Over/Under analysis for Capitals vs Maple Leafs
Last night, those who gambled on over 6.5 got lucky when the Leafs tied the game with just under two minutes left. At 2-2, the pace of that game considerably slowed down. At even strength, it scored slightly over 4.0 expected goals and 5.12 expected goals overall.
With the 6.5 teetering on the 7, last night’s game also closed at 7 in most places shortly before game time, and we might see it again today. Hitting inflated Overs only because two teams are using backup goalies makes me leery.
In front of No. 2s, teams may play differently, and that play is typically more conservative. Murray left the door open yesterday night with -1.48 goals saved over predicted, thus Samsonov now has the No. 1 position to fill. He should receive some assistance since Keefe, who let up too many odd-man rushes against the Habs last night, will be lecturing about turnovers. The Leafs’ game tonight will focus a lot on puck management.
It could seem like an easy Over bet here given that both teams went Over last night and started backups, but I’d be glad to wait until closer to kickoff and grab the lowest price on the Under.
Both teams combined to go 0-for-8 with the man advantage, and neither top line produced well.
The back-to-back may also result in a more even distribution of ice time, giving both bottom-six forwards a chance to play more.
I’ll wait for a 7 before placing my bet.
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